Here we go again, the Establishment get hold of the wrong end of a stick and beat themselves with it. With a few honourable exceptions like Dan Hodges and Libdem Voice virtually every media outlet goes with idea that UKIP have “broken/ through/the mould/cosy consensus” blah, blah blah.

The inconvenient fact is that UKIPs vote share fell from 23% last year to 17% this year. Even excluding London it was still only 18%. UKIP may well get more headlines on Monday but the facts suggest that they peaked sometime in the last year.
My current prediction is that UKIP will get between 7 & 10% in the General Election, an impressive increase over a single Parliament but nowhere near enough to elect any MPs, at least under normal circumstances.



Picture credit


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